[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 31 09:30:26 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed. There 
was a C3 level event late in the UT day. Numbered regions on 
the visible solar disk appear stable. Solar wind speed was steady 
at 380-400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF sustained mid Southward 
bias to -4nT over most of the UT day, a level which is unlikely 
to promote significant merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar 
wind parameters may become slightly enhanced day three of the 
forecast period due to a small N hemisphere coronal hole now 
at central solar meridian.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12211011
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               5   12212112
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            4   02212121
      Alice Springs        3   01211012
      Norfolk Island       2   11101011
      Culgoora             5   3220101-
      Gingin               3   01111121
      Camden               3   12201011
      Canberra             2   02101011
      Hobart               3   12111011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   01122000
      Casey                5   22221121
      Mawson              14   23411244
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2211 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     5    Quiet
01 Aug     6    Quiet
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes 
over the UT day. Expect Quiet conditions days one and two. Mild 
coronal hole wind stream effects are possible day three bringing 
occasionally Unsettled periods mainly at mid to high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month  T index
Jun      83
Jul      69
Aug      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values 
with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. Minor degradations 
possible day three of the forecast period Antarctic/S Aus/NZ 
regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    68900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list