[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 31 09:30:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed. There
was a C3 level event late in the UT day. Numbered regions on
the visible solar disk appear stable. Solar wind speed was steady
at 380-400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF sustained mid Southward
bias to -4nT over most of the UT day, a level which is unlikely
to promote significant merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar
wind parameters may become slightly enhanced day three of the
forecast period due to a small N hemisphere coronal hole now
at central solar meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12211011
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 5 12212112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 02212121
Alice Springs 3 01211012
Norfolk Island 2 11101011
Culgoora 5 3220101-
Gingin 3 01111121
Camden 3 12201011
Canberra 2 02101011
Hobart 3 12111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01122000
Casey 5 22221121
Mawson 14 23411244
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 5 Quiet
01 Aug 6 Quiet
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes
over the UT day. Expect Quiet conditions days one and two. Mild
coronal hole wind stream effects are possible day three bringing
occasionally Unsettled periods mainly at mid to high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month T index
Jun 83
Jul 69
Aug 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. Minor degradations
possible day three of the forecast period Antarctic/S Aus/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 68900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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