[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 24 09:30:07 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very-Low over the last 24 hours, 
with only B class X-ray flares. Solar activity is expected to 
be Very-Low to Low 24-Jul, with only a small chance of an isolated 
M-class flares from AR1793 (N20, W40 - complexity Eso) or AR1800 
(S08, W03 - complexity Dao) but most likely only B/C flares. 
The solar wind speed declined slowly from 400 to 350km/s over 
the 23-Jul UT day. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) north-south 
Bz oscillated within an average range of +/-5nT, unlikely to 
create significant geomagnetic activity. A CME observed 0624UT 
22-Jul by SOHO spacecraft LASCO C2 sensor was determined to be 
directed to the solar farside and should not be geoeffective. 
Coronal hole CH576 will be in a geoeffective position 25-27 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12001011
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               3   22101012
      Townsville           3   22101012
      Learmonth            2   22100011
      Alice Springs        2   21001012
      Norfolk Island       2   22001010
      Culgoora             2   12001011
      Gingin               1   11000011
      Camden               1   11001011
      Canberra             1   12001000
      Hobart               1   11001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   11001000
      Casey                5   23211012
      Mawson              12   33211044
      Davis                9   22211134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1001 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul     5    Quiet
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day at mid 
and low latitudes. Isolated Active periods at auroral latitudes. 
Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next day 23-Jul, in 
the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards periods. A predominantly 
NW CME ~06UT 22-Jul has been determined to be solar farside and 
will not be geoeffective. Coronal Hole CH576 is at central solar 
latitudes and should have rotated into a geoeffective position 
late on 25-Jul with increased solar wind speed and Unsettled-Active 
geomagnetic activity over 25-27 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values for 24 hour 
averages at most locations during daylight hours over the last 
24 hours with the daily T index close to predicted monthly average. 
However there was significant hourly variability with night-time 
MUFs depressed, particularly across low latitudes, and low-latitude 
daylight enhancements. Expect mostly normal average HF conditions 
next two days, with MUFs perhaps slightly below average. There 
should be Unsettled-Active geomagnetic activity from late on 
25-Jul for ~2 days, causing larger hourly MUF variations.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    72100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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