[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jul 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 24 09:30:07 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very-Low over the last 24 hours,
with only B class X-ray flares. Solar activity is expected to
be Very-Low to Low 24-Jul, with only a small chance of an isolated
M-class flares from AR1793 (N20, W40 - complexity Eso) or AR1800
(S08, W03 - complexity Dao) but most likely only B/C flares.
The solar wind speed declined slowly from 400 to 350km/s over
the 23-Jul UT day. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) north-south
Bz oscillated within an average range of +/-5nT, unlikely to
create significant geomagnetic activity. A CME observed 0624UT
22-Jul by SOHO spacecraft LASCO C2 sensor was determined to be
directed to the solar farside and should not be geoeffective.
Coronal hole CH576 will be in a geoeffective position 25-27 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12001011
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 3 22101012
Townsville 3 22101012
Learmonth 2 22100011
Alice Springs 2 21001012
Norfolk Island 2 22001010
Culgoora 2 12001011
Gingin 1 11000011
Camden 1 11001011
Canberra 1 12001000
Hobart 1 11001011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 11001000
Casey 5 23211012
Mawson 12 33211044
Davis 9 22211134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1001 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 5 Quiet
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day at mid
and low latitudes. Isolated Active periods at auroral latitudes.
Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next day 23-Jul, in
the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards periods. A predominantly
NW CME ~06UT 22-Jul has been determined to be solar farside and
will not be geoeffective. Coronal Hole CH576 is at central solar
latitudes and should have rotated into a geoeffective position
late on 25-Jul with increased solar wind speed and Unsettled-Active
geomagnetic activity over 25-27 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values for 24 hour
averages at most locations during daylight hours over the last
24 hours with the daily T index close to predicted monthly average.
However there was significant hourly variability with night-time
MUFs depressed, particularly across low latitudes, and low-latitude
daylight enhancements. Expect mostly normal average HF conditions
next two days, with MUFs perhaps slightly below average. There
should be Unsettled-Active geomagnetic activity from late on
25-Jul for ~2 days, causing larger hourly MUF variations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 72100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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