[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 23 09:30:23 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very-Low over the last 24 hours, 
with only B class X-ray flares. Solar activity is expected to 
be Very-Low to Low 23-Jul, with only a small chance of an isolated 
M-class flare from AR1793 (N20, W26, magnetic complexity Eso) 
or AR1800 (S08, E10, magnetic complexity Axx) but most likely 
just B/C flares. The solar wind speed was steady around 400km/s 
over the 22-Jul UT day. IMF Bz was slightly northward, not conducive 
to merging with the geomagnetic field till ~15UT and has since 
been oscillating within the average range of +/-5nT, unlikely 
to create significant geomagnetic activity. A CME observed 0624UT 
22-Jul by SOHO spacecraft LASCO C2 sensor is mostly propagating 
north-west but as it developed in the field of view after 07UT 
it appears partially halo and may be geoeffective 24-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100102
      Cocos Island         2   10100102
      Darwin               3   12101112
      Townsville           2   12100102
      Learmonth            2   11100102
      Alice Springs        1   01100002
      Norfolk Island       1   11100001
      Culgoora             2   11100112
      Gingin               3   10100103
      Camden               2   01100102
      Canberra             1   01000002
      Hobart               1   00100002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001001
      Casey                4   12200113
      Mawson               8   21000125
      Davis                8   21110115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2001 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul     5    Quiet
24 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul    10    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day at mid 
and low latitudes. Isolated Active periods at auroral latitudes. 
Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next day 23-Jul, in 
the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards periods. A predominantly 
north-west CME ~06UT 22-Jul may graze the geomagnetic field 24-Jul. Coronal 
Hole CH576 is at central solar latitudes and may have rotated 
into a geoeffective position on the 3rd day 25-Jul with increased 
solar wind speed and geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jul    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10%
24 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10%
25 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values on average at 
most locations during daylight hours over the last 24 hours with 
the daily T index only slightly below the predicted monthly average. 
However night-time MUFs were depressed, particularly across low 
latitudes. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next two days, 
with MUFs perhaps slightly below average. There may be moderate 
geomagnetic activity on the 3rd day 25-Jul causing larger hourly 
MUF variations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    58900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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