[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 22 09:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
a long duration C3 flare from AR1800 (S08E22) at 0844UT the only 
flare of note. Solar activity is expected to be Low 22-Jul, with 
the chance of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed 
declined slightly over the day as the coronal hole wind stream 
continues to wane, and has now dropped below 400km/s. IMF Bz 
remained stable, fluctuating within the range +/-2nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         1   01010111
      Darwin               4   12111212
      Townsville           4   12112112
      Learmonth            4   10112221
      Alice Springs        3   11102211
      Norfolk Island       1   01001011
      Culgoora             3   11111111
      Gingin               4   11102222
      Camden               3   11111211
      Canberra             1   01001111
      Hobart               2   11002210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001100
      Casey                7   23212221
      Mawson              16   21212255
      Davis               28   13333166

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   3111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul     5    Quiet
23 Jul     5    Quiet
24 Jul     5    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at most locations over 
the UT day, with some isolated substorm activity at auroral latitudes 
the only activity of note. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values at most locations 
over the last 24 hours and HF conditions were normal. Expect 
mostly normal HF conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    73800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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