[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 21 09:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C2 flare from AR1793 (N20W01) at 0338UT. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low 21-Jul, with the chance of an isolated 
M-class flare. The solar wind speed declined steadily throughout 
the day as the coronal hole wind stream wanes, to be just above 
400km/s at the time of report. IMF Bz remained stable, fluctuating 
within the range +/-2nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   21100000
      Cocos Island         2   2210000-
      Darwin               4   32210001
      Townsville           3   22110002
      Learmonth            3   31110100
      Alice Springs        2   2210000-
      Norfolk Island       1   21000000
      Culgoora             2   21101000
      Gingin               2   21200000
      Camden               2   21101000
      Canberra             2   21100001
      Hobart               2   21001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   2101100-
      Casey                5   33210010
      Mawson              11   53330000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17   3343 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul     5    Quiet
22 Jul     5    Quiet
23 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days. Some isolated 
Active conditions possible at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values at most locations 
over the last 24 hours and HF conditions were normal. Expect 
mostly normal HF conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   215000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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