[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 13 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 20 09:31:08 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
with no significant flare activity. Further analysis of the CME 
associated with the erupting filament from Region 1800 (S10E63, 
18/1823UT) reported yesterday indicates it does not have an Earthward 
directed component. Solar activity is expected to be Low 20-Jul, 
with the chance of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind 
speed increased steadily throughout the day under the influence 
of a coronal hole wind stream, peaking at just over 650km/s before 
starting a gradual decline. IMF Bz remained relatively stable, 
mostly within the range +/-5nT. There is still no evidence of 
the arrival of the CME from 16-Jul, despite being more than 24 
hours past the modelled arrival time.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet to Active, 
Minor Storms at high latitudes

Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22333321
      Cocos Island         7   22322221
      Darwin              11   2233332-
      Townsville          11   22333322
      Learmonth           12   21334322
      Alice Springs       10   22333321
      Norfolk Island       9   22333221
      Culgoora            11   22333322
      Gingin              11   21334321
      Camden              12   32333322
      Canberra            10   22333320
      Hobart              14   22434322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    22   22455431
      Casey               16   33333343
      Mawson              50   34543765

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Darwin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             15   1112 4543     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul    20    Active
21 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 17 July and 
is current for 18-20 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Unsettled 
throughout the day with an isolated Active period 00-03UT and 
isolated Minor and Major Storm conditions at high latitudes. 
The enhanced activity was a result of the fast coronal hole wind 
stream. Expect geomagnetic conditions to range between Quiet 
and Active 20-Jul. The coronal hole effects are in decline and 
will wane over the day. Resultant geomagnetic conditions should 
be Quiet to Unsettled. However there is still a chance that a 
CME observed on 16-Jul will impact sometime today, which could 
increase geomagnetic activity to Active and produce isolated 
Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 21 was issued 
on 18 July and is current for 19-20 Jul. MUFs were near predicted 
monthly values at most locations over the last 24 hours and HF 
conditions were normal at most Aus locations with some degraded 
conditions at high latitude (sub/Antarctic) sites. Expect MUFs 
mostly near predicted monthly values 20 Jul. Ongoing degraded 
HF conditions expected at high latitude locations 20 Jul due 
to elevated geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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