[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 25 09:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
the largest flare a C1.8 from AR1800 ((s08 w17) complexity Dao) 
at 2143UT. The long tail on the x-ray trace is indicative of 
a CME and AR1800 is in a geoeffective position, but awaiting 
SOHO LASCO coronagraph data to confirm. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low-Moderate 25-Jul, with small chance of an isolated M-class 
flares from AR1800, AR1793 ((n19 w54) - complexity Eso) or newly 
rotated AR1801 ((n21 e58) - complexity Hsx), but most likely 
only B/C flares. The solar wind speed remained near 350km/s over 
the 24-Jul UT day. Solar wind speed is likely to increase during 
25-July due to coronal hole CH576 which will be in a geoeffective 
position 25-27 July. Recurrence suggests Vsw may reach over 500km/s. 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) north-south Bz oscillated 
within an average range of +/-5nT, unlikely to create significant 
geomagnetic activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101011
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11111011
      Townsville           2   12101011
      Learmonth            1   11101010
      Alice Springs        1   11101001
      Norfolk Island       2   2-001011
      Culgoora             2   111010--
      Gingin               2   11101011
      Camden               2   11101011
      Canberra             1   01101001
      Hobart               1   11002000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                5   22212111
      Mawson              13   42111153
      Davis                6   21311131

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2200 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul    30    Active to Minor Storm
27 Jul    20    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the 24-Jul UT day 
at mid and low latitudes. Isolated Active periods at auroral 
latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next day 
25-Jul, in the absence of prolonged Interplanetary Magnetic Field 
(IMF) Bz southwards periods, until the arrival of the high speed 
solar wind stream from coronal Hole CH576 due 25 or 26-Jul. Recurrence 
suggests Vsw may reach over 500km/s and geomagnetic conditions 
may reach Active to Minor Storm levels at peak, depending on 
the north-south orientation of IMF Bz.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
27 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream (HSSWS) due 25-27 July may cause disturbed 
conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10%
26 Jul    55    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul    55    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values for 24 hour 
averages across the region during daylight hours over the last 
24 hours with the daily T index slightly below predicted monthly 
average. However there was significant hourly variability with 
night-time MUFs depressed across northern regions 20-35%. Significant 
wave activity was observed causing hourly variability. Strong 
Spread-F evident in the West. Expect mostly normal average HF 
conditions for most of 25-Jul, with MUFs perhaps slightly below 
average. There should be Unsettled-Active geomagnetic activity 
due to high solar wind speed from a recurrent coronal hole CH576, 
with possible peak Minor Storm (depending on Interplanetary Magnetic 
field north-south orientation) from late on 25-Jul for ~2 days, 
probably causing MUF depressions up to 20% and larger hourly 
MUF variations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    42600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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