[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 13 issued 2335 UT on 16 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 17 09:35:08 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
just two low level C-class flares from AR1791 (S14W08). A weak 
CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO ~0430UT. Analysis of 
this event is ongoing, however it appears to have some Earthwards 
directed component. Initial estimates suggest a glancing blow 
at best. A disappearing solar filament observed in the south 
west quadrant (1328-1623UT) yesterday (16-Jul) is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Expect further flaring from AR1791 17-Jul, 
with M-class flares possible. The solar wind speed remains slow 
(~350kms), and the IMF relatively stable. Expect quiet solar 
wind/IMF conditions 17 Jul. A coronal hole should move into geoeffective 
position 18-Jul, increasing solar wind speed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10110011
      Cocos Island         1   00010110
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Learmonth            1   01100111
      Alice Springs        0   00100010
      Norfolk Island       3   20------
      Culgoora             2   20000003
      Gingin               2   01100121
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             1   00110010
      Hobart               1   10010111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00011011
      Casey                4   22211120
      Mawson              20   23212463

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             35   6654 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     5    Quiet
18 Jul    12    Unsettled
19 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 17 Jul. A coronal hole wind 
stream may increase geomagnetic activity from 18-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values at most 
locations over the last 24 hours. Some mild depressions were 
observed at S.Aus/NZ locations overnight. Expect a strengthening 
ionosphere 17-18 Jul, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Some degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
from 18-Jul due to mildly increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    56500 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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