[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 18 09:30:25 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
just two low level C-class flares for the period. Further low 
level flaring from AR1791 is expected 18-Jul, with the chance 
of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed remains slow 
(below 400km/s), and the IMF relatively stable. A coronal hole 
should move into geoeffective position 18-Jul, increasing solar 
wind speed for the next three days. The CME from 16-Jul reported 
yesterday is expected to arrive in the latter half of today (18-Jul). 
Modelling suggests a glancing blow from this CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         2   11210011
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           3   12201012
      Learmonth            1   01100011
      Alice Springs        1   10200010
      Norfolk Island       3   23100001
      Culgoora             2   11101111
      Gingin               1   01100111
      Camden               2   11101110
      Canberra             1   01100010
      Hobart               2   11101110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                3   22101111
      Mawson               2   11200021

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1211 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
19 Jul    20    Active with Minor Storm periods
20 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions early 18 Jul, increasing 
to Active in the second half of the UT day and into 19-Jul, due 
to the combined effects of a coronal hole wind stream and a CME. 
Isolated Minor Storm periods possible 19-Jul, particularly at 
high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
19 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values at most locations 
over the last 24 hours, and HF conditions were normal. These 
conditions are expected to prevail for most of 18-Jul. Some degraded 
HF conditions expected at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations from late 
18-Jul and into 19-Jul due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    40300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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