[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 16 09:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest flare being a C3.6 from AR1791 (S14E04) at 1055UT.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed remains below 400km/s. IMF Bz was
mildly southwards for most of the day, however the period of
sustained southwards IMF we have experienced over the last two
days associated with the filament eruption on 09 July, appears
to have come to an end. Expect quiet solar wind/IMF conditions
16-17 Jul. A coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective
position 18-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 33333122
Cocos Island 5 22-22111
Darwin 11 33333112
Townsville 11 33333122
Learmonth 14 33344122
Alice Springs 11 33333112
Norfolk Island 11 33432111
Culgoora 11 33333122
Gingin 14 32344222
Camden 12 33433121
Canberra 12 33433111
Hobart 16 33444221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 40 45574330
Casey 10 33332122
Mawson 30 55433345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 128 (Severe storm)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 27 3434 4454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Active over
the UT day, with isolated Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.
The increased activity was due to a sustained southwards IMF
for most of the day. The source of the southwards IMF appears
to have now passed. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions
16-17 Jul. A coronal hole wind stream may increase geomagnetic
activity 18-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values at N.Aus/equatorial
locations over the last 24 hours, and mildly depressed at S/Aus/NZ/Antarctic
locations as a result of increased geomagnetic activity. Continuing
degraded HF conditions were observed at Antarctic locations.
Expect ionospheric conditions to gradually improve over the next
three days. Further mild MUF depressions at S.Aus locations possible
16-Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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