[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 16 09:30:22 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
the largest flare being a C3.6 from AR1791 (S14E04) at 1055UT. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 
3 days. The solar wind speed remains below 400km/s. IMF Bz was 
mildly southwards for most of the day, however the period of 
sustained southwards IMF we have experienced over the last two 
days associated with the filament eruption on 09 July, appears 
to have come to an end. Expect quiet solar wind/IMF conditions 
16-17 Jul. A coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective 
position 18-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33333122
      Cocos Island         5   22-22111
      Darwin              11   33333112
      Townsville          11   33333122
      Learmonth           14   33344122
      Alice Springs       11   33333112
      Norfolk Island      11   33432111
      Culgoora            11   33333122
      Gingin              14   32344222
      Camden              12   33433121
      Canberra            12   33433111
      Hobart              16   33444221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    40   45574330
      Casey               10   33332122
      Mawson              30   55433345

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth          128   (Severe storm)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             27   3434 4454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Active over 
the UT day, with isolated Minor Storm periods at high latitudes. 
The increased activity was due to a sustained southwards IMF 
for most of the day. The source of the southwards IMF appears 
to have now passed. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
16-17 Jul. A coronal hole wind stream may increase geomagnetic 
activity 18-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values at N.Aus/equatorial 
locations over the last 24 hours, and mildly depressed at S/Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
locations as a result of increased geomagnetic activity. Continuing 
degraded HF conditions were observed at Antarctic locations. 
Expect ionospheric conditions to gradually improve over the next 
three days. Further mild MUF depressions at S.Aus locations possible 
16-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    17000 K  Bz:  -7 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list