[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 15 09:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 flare from active region 1785 (S11W83). A CME first 
observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery at 13/1112UT is not expected to 
be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be very low to 
low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed has declined from 
~~420km/s to ~380km/s. The IMF Bz component has been negative 
for most of the day, down to around -10nT, its current level.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   22254332
      Cocos Island         9   12233232
      Darwin              13   22244232
      Townsville          16   22254332
      Learmonth           19   22254343
      Alice Springs       17   22254333
      Norfolk Island      14   22244332
      Culgoora            16   22254332
      Gingin              21   22254353
      Camden              17   22354332
      Canberra            17   22354332
      Hobart              20   22354433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    44   23466653
      Casey               11   22333232
      Mawson              37   54444356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   4320 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
16 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions started quiet on 14-Jul, increased 
to minor storm levels before the middle of the UT day and are 
now mostly unsettled. The IMF Bz component has been negative 
throughout the period and remains around -10nT. This is likely 
to cause further unsettled conditions on 15-Jul, with more active 
conditions possible if the negative Bz persists.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible at high latitudes 15-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours, with strong nighttime enhancements at Niue 
Island. Degraded HF conditions are likely in Antarctica during 
15-Jul. Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.3E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    28000 K  Bz:   7 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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