[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 14 09:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 event from active region 1791 (S11E46). Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed declined gradually from ~500km/s to ~400km/s. The 
IMF Bz component was positive, up to 12nT, for much of the day, 
but is now neutral.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   33211122
      Cocos Island         3   2--10112
      Darwin               7   33210122
      Townsville           8   33221222
      Learmonth            8   33221122
      Alice Springs        7   33211122
      Norfolk Island       5   32210111
      Culgoora             7   33211121
      Gingin               8   33210232
      Camden               6   32211121
      Canberra             4   22210121
      Hobart               6   23211221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   22100111
      Casey               12   44222222
      Mawson              30   54421256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   2332 2433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul     5    Quiet
16 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 11 July and 
is current for 13-14 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions over the last 
24 hours were mostly quiet, with an unsettled period early in 
the UT day. Activity reached storm levels in Antarctica. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected for the Australian region for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible at high latitudes 14-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours, with nighttime MUF depressions at low latitudes. 
Degraded HF conditions are possible in Antarctica during 14-Jul. 
Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    86300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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