[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 13 09:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with 
just a single C-class flare (C3 at 1733UT from AR1785 S11W67). 
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed was in decline and IMF relatively stable until 16UT, 
when a weak shock was observed, followed by an increase in total 
magnetic field, density and solar wind speed, possibly due to 
the early arrival of a CME from a filament eruption on 09 July. 
The IMF Bz component remains mostly northward directed at this 
stage.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12212112
      Cocos Island         2   111110--
      Darwin               6   22212222
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            5   222120--
      Alice Springs        5   222120--
      Norfolk Island       4   12211112
      Culgoora             6   12222212
      Gingin               4   122120--
      Camden               5   22212112
      Canberra             3   11112101
      Hobart               5   12222112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     5   122220--
      Casey                9   323221--
      Mawson              21   454321--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25   2354 4442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul    25    Active
14 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
15 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 11 July and 
is current for 13-14 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly quiet over the last 24 hours. Some periods 
at active to minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes 
early in the day. Solar wind parameters are currently elevated 
due to a structure in the solar wind, however IMF Bz remains
northward so there has so far been little effect on geomagnetic 
conditions. If IMF Bz remains predominantly northwards then mostly 
Unsettled conditions, with isolated Active periods are expected. 
If IMF Bz turns southwards for an extended period over the day, 
then we can expect increased geomagnetic activity with isolated 
Minor Storm periods possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible at mid and high latitudes 
13-Jul and continuing at high latitudes into 14-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. Daytime 
MUF enhancements were observed at equatorial latitudes along 
with some mild nighttime depressions in northern Australia over 
during last 24 hours. Degraded HF conditions are possible at 
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations 13-Jul, continuing at high latitudes 
through to 14-Jul. Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions are 
expected.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    70500 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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