[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 12 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
three small C-class flares. Low activity is expected for the
next 3 days. The solar wind speed fluctuated between ~350km/s
to ~500km/s. The IMF Bz component remained negative throughout
the period, down to -7nT, and is currently around -5nT. A CME
observed on 9-Jul is expected around 13/1600UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 23532331
Cocos Island 8 22322231
Darwin 11 22432232
Townsville 15 23532331
Learmonth 18 23433351
Alice Springs 15 22532332
Norfolk Island 14 23532231
Culgoora 15 23532331
Gingin 20 23443352
Camden 15 23532331
Canberra 15 23532331
Hobart 16 23533331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 29 22645443
Casey 12 23322342
Mawson 47 46543374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30 5545 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Jul 25 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were mostly
unsettled over the last 24 hours, with two brief periods reaching
minor storm levels. Conditions are expected to return to quiet
levels during 12-Jul. Activity is expected to increase again
late on 13-Jul with the arrival of the 9-Jul CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions in Antarctic region could continue
into 12-Jul. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 12-13
Jul, with degraded conditions at high latitudes late on 13-Jul
and into 14-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime MUF enhancements were observed at low latitudes
and nighttime depressions in southern Australia over during last
24 hours. Degraded HF conditions in the Antarctic region could
continue into 12-Jul. Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions
are expected for 12-13 Jul, with a degraded conditions expected
at high latitudes late on 13-Jul and into 14-Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 69900 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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