[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 12 09:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with 
three small C-class flares. Low activity is expected for the 
next 3 days. The solar wind speed fluctuated between ~350km/s 
to ~500km/s. The IMF Bz component remained negative throughout 
the period, down to -7nT, and is currently around -5nT. A CME 
observed on 9-Jul is expected around 13/1600UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   23532331
      Cocos Island         8   22322231
      Darwin              11   22432232
      Townsville          15   23532331
      Learmonth           18   23433351
      Alice Springs       15   22532332
      Norfolk Island      14   23532231
      Culgoora            15   23532331
      Gingin              20   23443352
      Camden              15   23532331
      Canberra            15   23532331
      Hobart              16   23533331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    29   22645443
      Casey               12   23322342
      Mawson              47   46543374

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30   5545 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Jul    25    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were mostly 
unsettled over the last 24 hours, with two brief periods reaching 
minor storm levels. Conditions are expected to return to quiet 
levels during 12-Jul. Activity is expected to increase again 
late on 13-Jul with the arrival of the 9-Jul CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions in Antarctic region could continue 
into 12-Jul. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 12-13 
Jul, with degraded conditions at high latitudes late on 13-Jul 
and into 14-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jul    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Daytime MUF enhancements were observed at low latitudes 
and nighttime depressions in southern Australia over during last 
24 hours. Degraded HF conditions in the Antarctic region could 
continue into 12-Jul. Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected for 12-13 Jul, with a degraded conditions expected 
at high latitudes late on 13-Jul and into 14-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    69900 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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