[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 11 09:30:26 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with 
the largest event being a C4.9 from active region 1787 (S15W13). 
Low to moderate activity is expected for the next 3 days. The 
solar wind speed varied from ~350km/s to ~500km/s during the 
UT day and is now ~450km/s. The IMF Bz component remained negative 
for most of this period, down to -12nT, and is currently around 
-5nT. SOHO/LASCO images of the 9-Jul CME show a full halo. The 
revised arrival time estimate is around 13/1800UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   23334332
      Cocos Island        11   3323322-
      Darwin              15   33234333
      Townsville          14   23334332
      Learmonth           20   3334532-
      Alice Springs       13   2323432-
      Norfolk Island      11   32333222
      Culgoora            14   23334332
      Gingin              17   3324433-
      Camden              15   23334333
      Canberra             9   22233222
      Hobart              15   23334333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    31   2255553-
      Casey               13   3333323-
      Mawson              34   5654323-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1022 2414     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    12    Unsettled
12 Jul     5    Quiet
13 Jul    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly unsettled with some 
active periods over the last 24 hours. Conditions reached storm 
levels at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 
for 11-Jul. Quiet conditions are expected to return by 12-Jul. 
Activity could increase late on 13-Jul with the arrival of the 
9-Jul CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded periods are likely at high latitudes early 
11-Jul and late 13-Jul. Otherwise, mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected for the next three days, with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 8 
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Nighttime MUF enhancements 
were observed in southern Australia and degraded HF conditions 
in Antarctic region. The latter could continue into 11-Jul. A 
chance of degraded conditions at high latitudes late on 13-Jul. 
Otherwise, mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    45000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list