[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 11 09:30:26 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with 
the largest event being a C4.9 from active region 1787 (S15W13). 
Low to moderate activity is expected for the next 3 days. The 
solar wind speed varied from ~350km/s to ~500km/s during the 
UT day and is now ~450km/s. The IMF Bz component remained negative 
for most of this period, down to -12nT, and is currently around 
-5nT. SOHO/LASCO images of the 9-Jul CME show a full halo. The 
revised arrival time estimate is around 13/1800UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   23334332
      Cocos Island        11   3323322-
      Darwin              15   33234333
      Townsville          14   23334332
      Learmonth           20   3334532-
      Alice Springs       13   2323432-
      Norfolk Island      11   32333222
      Culgoora            14   23334332
      Gingin              17   3324433-
      Camden              15   23334333
      Canberra             9   22233222
      Hobart              15   23334333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    31   2255553-
      Casey               13   3333323-
      Mawson              34   5654323-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1022 2414     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    12    Unsettled
12 Jul     5    Quiet
13 Jul    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly unsettled with some 
active periods over the last 24 hours. Conditions reached storm 
levels at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 
for 11-Jul. Quiet conditions are expected to return by 12-Jul. 
Activity could increase late on 13-Jul with the arrival of the 
9-Jul CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded periods are likely at high latitudes early 
11-Jul and late 13-Jul. Otherwise, mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected for the next three days, with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 8 
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Nighttime MUF enhancements 
were observed in southern Australia and degraded HF conditions 
in Antarctic region. The latter could continue into 11-Jul. A 
chance of degraded conditions at high latitudes late on 13-Jul. 
Otherwise, mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    45000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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