[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 8 09:30:23 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class 
flares were observed today- the largest being a C6.1 event at 
0058 UT from region 1785 (S10W02). Solar wind speed gradually 
decreased from around 340 to 300 km/s during the UT day today 
and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive up to around 
7 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at 
low to moderate levels for the next three days with the possibility 
of isolated M-class activity and a slight chance of X-flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21101100
      Cocos Island         1   21000100
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           3   21102111
      Learmonth            3   30101100
      Alice Springs        2   21001100
      Norfolk Island       1   11001011
      Culgoora             2   20102100
      Camden               2   21102000
      Canberra             1   20001000
      Hobart               2   21002000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   31002000
      Casey                6   33311000
      Mawson              11   53311200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             32   3455 5434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul     7    Quiet
09 Jul     6    Quiet
10 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were 
observed today. Mostly Quite levels of activity may be expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed during the last 
24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jul    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed during the last 
24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.9E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    33400 K  Bz:  -9 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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