[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 8 09:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class
flares were observed today- the largest being a C6.1 event at
0058 UT from region 1785 (S10W02). Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from around 340 to 300 km/s during the UT day today
and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive up to around
7 nT during this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at
low to moderate levels for the next three days with the possibility
of isolated M-class activity and a slight chance of X-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21101100
Cocos Island 1 21000100
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 3 21102111
Learmonth 3 30101100
Alice Springs 2 21001100
Norfolk Island 1 11001011
Culgoora 2 20102100
Camden 2 21102000
Canberra 1 20001000
Hobart 2 21002000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 31002000
Casey 6 33311000
Mawson 11 53311200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 32 3455 5434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 6 Quiet
10 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were
observed today. Mostly Quite levels of activity may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed during the last
24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed during the last
24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 33400 K Bz: -9 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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