[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 7 09:30:22 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class 
flares were observed today- the largest being a C4.1 event at 
0233 UT from region 1785 (S11E12). Solar wind speed mostly varied 
between around 340 and 360 km/s during the UT day today and the 
Bz component of IMF stayed negative up to around -13 nT during 
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of isolated M-class 
activity and a slight chance of X-flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at high latitudes

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12322322
      Cocos Island         6   12222212
      Darwin               9   22332222
      Townsville           8   12322322
      Learmonth           12   22333233
      Alice Springs        7   12322222
      Norfolk Island       8   22322222
      Culgoora             9   22322322
      Camden               9   12332322
      Canberra             8   02322322
      Hobart              12   12-33432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    34   14655532
      Casey                6   22212122
      Mawson              50   57521456

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   2322 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul     6    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Due to sustained periods of negative Bz, Quiet to Unsettled 
levels of geomagnetic activity with isolated Active periods were 
observed today. Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity 
may be expected on 7 and 8 July. Activity is then expected to 
decline to mostly Quiet levels on 9 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some low latitude 
locations during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be observed on 7 July on high and some mid latitude circuits. 
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 8 and 9 
July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
08 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some locations 
in the northern Aus regions during the last 24 hours. Minor to 
mild MUF depressions may be observed on 7 July in Southern Aus/NZ 
regions. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
8 and 9 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    18100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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