[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 6 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class
flares were observed today- the largest being a C8.5 event at
1301 UT from region 1787 (S15E43). Solar wind speed varied between
around 350 and 370 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-7 nT most of the times during this period.
Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels for the
next three days with the possibility of isolated M-class activity
and a slight chance of X-flare, especially from regions 1785
and 1787.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12112121
Cocos Island 4 121121--
Darwin 7 22122231
Townsville 6 2222212-
Learmonth 7 2222222-
Alice Springs 5 2221211-
Norfolk Island 3 21111021
Culgoora 4 12112121
Camden 4 12112121
Canberra 2 02111110
Hobart 4 13121110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 0122000-
Casey 5 2222211-
Mawson 19 5443221-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2010 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 7 Quiet
08 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today.
Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected
on 6 July. Activity is then expected to decline to mostly Quiet
levels on 7 and 8 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some low latitude
locations during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be observed on 6 July in Southern Aus/NZ regions. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal on 7 and 8 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some locations
in the northern Aus regions during the last 24 hours. Minor to
mild MUF depressions may be observed on 6 July in Southern Aus/NZ
regions. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
7 and 8 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 36500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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