[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 6 09:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class 
flares were observed today- the largest being a C8.5 event at 
1301 UT from region 1787 (S15E43). Solar wind speed varied between 
around 350 and 370 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-7 nT most of the times during this period. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels for the 
next three days with the possibility of isolated M-class activity 
and a slight chance of X-flare, especially from regions 1785 
and 1787.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112121
      Cocos Island         4   121121--
      Darwin               7   22122231
      Townsville           6   2222212-
      Learmonth            7   2222222-
      Alice Springs        5   2221211-
      Norfolk Island       3   21111021
      Culgoora             4   12112121
      Camden               4   12112121
      Canberra             2   02111110
      Hobart               4   13121110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   0122000-
      Casey                5   2222211-
      Mawson              19   5443221-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2010 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul     7    Quiet
08 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today. 
Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
on 6 July. Activity is then expected to decline to mostly Quiet 
levels on 7 and 8 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some low latitude 
locations during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be observed on 6 July in Southern Aus/NZ regions. HF conditions 
are expected to remain mostly normal on 7 and 8 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jul    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
07 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some locations 
in the northern Aus regions during the last 24 hours. Minor to 
mild MUF depressions may be observed on 6 July in Southern Aus/NZ 
regions. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
7 and 8 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    36500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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