[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 5 09:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class 
flares were observed today- the largest being a C8.9 event at 
0008 UT from region 1785 (S12E39). Solar wind speed varied between 
around 360 and 390 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-4nT most of the times during this period. 
Solar wind stream may be strengthened on 5 July due to previously 
observed CME. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of isolated M-class 
activity and a slight chance of X-flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000111
      Cocos Island         2   11010111
      Darwin               2   11100112
      Townsville           2   11100112
      Learmonth            2   11100111
      Alice Springs        1   10000111
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Culgoora             1   11000111
      Camden               1   11000111
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               1   11000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22201211
      Mawson               4   32100121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul    12    Unsettled to Active
06 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today. 
Quiet to Active levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
on 5 July. Activity is then expected to decline to Quiet to Unsettled 
levels on 6 and Quiet levels on 7 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
mainly on low latitude locations during the last 24 hours. Minor 
to moderate MUF depressions on 5 July and minor depressions on 
6 July are possible especially in the high latitude and some 
mid latitude locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
06 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
07 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
mainly in the northern Aus regions during the last 24 hours. 
Minor to moderate MUF depressions on 5 July and minor depressions 
on 6 July are possible especially in Southern Aus/NA regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    41300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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