[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 4 09:30:10 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0708UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at moderate levels today. Several 
C-class and one M1.5 (0708UT) were observed today. This M flare 
from new region 1787 on the south east limb was associated with 
a non-earthward directed CME. The flare resulted in HF fadeouts. 
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from around 370 to 
350 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF 
varied between +/-4nT most of the times during this period. The 
CME of 30 June may be weakly geoeffective on 4 and 5 July. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next three 
days with some possibility of isolated M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000101
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           1   11100101
      Learmonth            1   11000101
      Alice Springs        0   00100100
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Culgoora             1   11000100
      Camden               1   11100101
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Hobart               1   11000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                4   22210201
      Mawson               9   32221214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1101 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul    12    Unsettled to Active
06 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today. 
Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
on 4 and 6 July with possibility of periods of Active levels 
on 5 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
05 Jul      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
06 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF fadeouts were observed today due to an M flare around 
0708 UT. Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
mainly on low latitudes during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild 
MUF depressions on 4 and 6 July and minor to moderate depressions 
possible on 5 July especially on mid and high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
05 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
06 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: HF fadeouts were observed due to an M flare around 0708 
UT today. Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
mainly in the northern Aus regions during the last 24 hours. 
Minor to mild MUF depressions on 4 and 6 July and minor to moderate 
depressions possible on 5 July especially on mid and high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    54400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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