[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 13 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 3 09:31:37 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. The largest 
flare was a C7.1 at 1749 UT from region 1785(S11E62). Solar wind 
speed showed a gradual decrease from around 450 to 400 km/s during 
the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-3 
nT most of the times during this period. The CME of 30 June may 
be weakly geoeffective on 4 July. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated M-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00100101
      Cocos Island         1   00110100
      Darwin               3   11210111
      Townsville           1   10100101
      Learmonth            1   10110100
      Alice Springs        1   01100101
      Norfolk Island       0   00000100
      Culgoora             1   10000101
      Camden               0   -0000101
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Hobart               0   01000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   12221310
      Mawson               6   12322201

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2331 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul     6    Quiet
04 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today. 
Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
on 3 July with possibility of rise to unsettled levels on 4 and 
5 July with some possibility of active levels on 5 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on 3 July. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF condition are possible on 4 and 5 July, especially on high 
and some mid latitude locations due to expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
05 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on 3 July with the possibility of minor to mild MUF 
depressions and degradations in HF condition on 4 and 5 July 
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    69700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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