[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 2 09:30:29 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. The largest 
flare was a C1.8 at 1516UT from region 1785(S09E76). Solar wind 
speed showed a gradual decrease from around 570 to 430 km/s during 
the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4 
nT most of the times during this period. The CME of 30 June may 
be weakly geoeffective on 4 July. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Mostly Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12220000
      Cocos Island         2   12110000
      Darwin               4   22221001
      Townsville           4   22320001
      Learmonth            3   12220000
      Alice Springs        3   12220000
      Norfolk Island       4   12320000
      Culgoora             4   12320001
      Camden               4   22320000
      Canberra             3   12220000
      Hobart               4   12321000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     5   21331000
      Casey                8   33322110
      Mawson              11   44322111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3312 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul     6    Quiet
03 Jul     6    Quiet
04 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed 
today. Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
for the next two days (2 and 3 July) with the possibility of 
rise to unsettled levels on 4 July due to the effect of the slow 
CME observed on 30 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected for the next two days (2 and 3 July). Minor to mild 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF condition are possible 
on 4 July, especially on high and some mid latitude locations 
due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity on 4 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations 
during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected for the next two days (2 and 3 July) with the possibility 
of minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF condition 
on 4 July due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity 
on 4 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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