[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 2 09:30:29 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. The largest
flare was a C1.8 at 1516UT from region 1785(S09E76). Solar wind
speed showed a gradual decrease from around 570 to 430 km/s during
the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4
nT most of the times during this period. The CME of 30 June may
be weakly geoeffective on 4 July. Solar activity is expected
to stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12220000
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 4 22221001
Townsville 4 22320001
Learmonth 3 12220000
Alice Springs 3 12220000
Norfolk Island 4 12320000
Culgoora 4 12320001
Camden 4 22320000
Canberra 3 12220000
Hobart 4 12321000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 21331000
Casey 8 33322110
Mawson 11 44322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3312 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 6 Quiet
03 Jul 6 Quiet
04 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed
today. Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected
for the next two days (2 and 3 July) with the possibility of
rise to unsettled levels on 4 July due to the effect of the slow
CME observed on 30 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations
during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected for the next two days (2 and 3 July). Minor to mild
MUF depressions and degradations in HF condition are possible
on 4 July, especially on high and some mid latitude locations
due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity on 4 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations
during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected for the next two days (2 and 3 July) with the possibility
of minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF condition
on 4 July due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity
on 4 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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