[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 1 09:30:22 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Five, low level, C flares from regions 1778 (S15 W27) 
and 1780 (S13 W46). Region 1781 (N22 W30) grew rapidly. STEREO 
A images show a CME ~0254 UT which may be associated with a filament 
lift-off in the vicinity of 1780. ACE data show the solar wind 
speed ranging between 440-600 km/s, currently ~510 km/s. The 
IMF north-south component ranged between +5 to -7 nT. The 28 
Jun CME may still mildly disturb the solar wind on 1 Jul. The 
WSA-ENLIL model suggests the 30 Jun CME will be weakly geo-effective 
late on 4 Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122111
      Cocos Island         4   22122110
      Darwin               9   32232222
      Townsville           8   32232121
      Learmonth            8   22233220
      Alice Springs        5   22222110
      Norfolk Island       4   22122011
      Culgoora             6   22123111
      Camden               7   32123111
      Canberra             3   21122010
      Hobart               6   22123120    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    13   33135120
      Casey               13   34321241
      Mawson              31   53342365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        40
           Planetary             66   7756 5444     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled
02 Jul     6    Quiet
03 Jul     6    Quiet

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-poor
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be degraded at times 1 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Jun    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-45% 04-12 UT. Depressed 20-30% 16-19 UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 20-30% depressions
      06-08, 11-14 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 25-35% 11-12,
      19-21 UT at Darwin. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during local day
      except Hobart with depressions to 25%. Depressions to 35%
      during local night; depressions increasing with increasing
      latitude. Poor conditions 16-19 UT at Canberra, Hobart and
      Sydney. Perth frequencies were near predicted monthly values
      00-19 UT, then 25-40% depressed. Night spread F at all stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 15-35% 00-10 UT then near predicted monthly values to
      30% enhanced. Weak ionosphere and blanketing sporadic E at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible on 1 Jul. Expect degraded 
propagation conditions at times, especially during night hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    8.9 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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