[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 1 09:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Five, low level, C flares from regions 1778 (S15 W27)
and 1780 (S13 W46). Region 1781 (N22 W30) grew rapidly. STEREO
A images show a CME ~0254 UT which may be associated with a filament
lift-off in the vicinity of 1780. ACE data show the solar wind
speed ranging between 440-600 km/s, currently ~510 km/s. The
IMF north-south component ranged between +5 to -7 nT. The 28
Jun CME may still mildly disturb the solar wind on 1 Jul. The
WSA-ENLIL model suggests the 30 Jun CME will be weakly geo-effective
late on 4 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22122111
Cocos Island 4 22122110
Darwin 9 32232222
Townsville 8 32232121
Learmonth 8 22233220
Alice Springs 5 22222110
Norfolk Island 4 22122011
Culgoora 6 22123111
Camden 7 32123111
Canberra 3 21122010
Hobart 6 22123120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 13 33135120
Casey 13 34321241
Mawson 31 53342365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 66 7756 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
02 Jul 6 Quiet
03 Jul 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Fair-normal Poor-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be degraded at times 1 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 25-45% 04-12 UT. Depressed 20-30% 16-19 UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-30% depressions
06-08, 11-14 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 25-35% 11-12,
19-21 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values during local day
except Hobart with depressions to 25%. Depressions to 35%
during local night; depressions increasing with increasing
latitude. Poor conditions 16-19 UT at Canberra, Hobart and
Sydney. Perth frequencies were near predicted monthly values
00-19 UT, then 25-40% depressed. Night spread F at all stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 15-35% 00-10 UT then near predicted monthly values to
30% enhanced. Weak ionosphere and blanketing sporadic E at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible on 1 Jul. Expect degraded
propagation conditions at times, especially during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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