[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 9 09:30:25 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Active 
region 1785 (S07W03) emitted a C9.7 flare at 08/0122UT and a 
C4.5 at 08/2219UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar 
activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed varied within 300-350 km/s for most of the 
UT day. The IMF Bz component was mostly negative, down to -5nT 
until around 20UT, thereafter positive to 4nT. The Solar wind 
speed is likely to remain low until a possible increase on 10-Jul 
due to a weak slow CME (from 6-Jul).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12200011
      Cocos Island         2   12110010
      Darwin               2   12110011
      Townsville           3   12200012
      Learmonth            2   22100011
      Alice Springs        2   12100011
      Norfolk Island       1   01200001
      Culgoora             2   12200011
      Gingin               1   11100110
      Camden               2   12200011
      Canberra             1   01200010
      Hobart               2   11200010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   01211000
      Casey                3   12211011
      Mawson              10   13311143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   4210 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul     5    Quiet
10 Jul    12    Unsettled to Active
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours. 
The arrival of a slow weak CME (from 6-Jul) could cause unsettled 
conditions, with some active periods at high latitudes, from 
10-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 8 
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Minor nighttime MUF depressions 
were observed during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected for the next three days, with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    38100 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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