[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 9 09:30:25 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Active
region 1785 (S07W03) emitted a C9.7 flare at 08/0122UT and a
C4.5 at 08/2219UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed varied within 300-350 km/s for most of the
UT day. The IMF Bz component was mostly negative, down to -5nT
until around 20UT, thereafter positive to 4nT. The Solar wind
speed is likely to remain low until a possible increase on 10-Jul
due to a weak slow CME (from 6-Jul).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12200011
Cocos Island 2 12110010
Darwin 2 12110011
Townsville 3 12200012
Learmonth 2 22100011
Alice Springs 2 12100011
Norfolk Island 1 01200001
Culgoora 2 12200011
Gingin 1 11100110
Camden 2 12200011
Canberra 1 01200010
Hobart 2 11200010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01211000
Casey 3 12211011
Mawson 10 13311143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 4210 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 12 Unsettled to Active
11 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours.
The arrival of a slow weak CME (from 6-Jul) could cause unsettled
conditions, with some active periods at high latitudes, from
10-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days, with a chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 8
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Minor nighttime MUF depressions
were observed during the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected for the next three days, with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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