[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 29 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 30 10:29:26 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed continued to decline over the UT day 
to ~350km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between -3 to +2nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Cocos Island         2   21110000
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           5   22221112
      Learmonth            5   22122112
      Alice Springs        3   21111102
      Norfolk Island       2   11011012
      Gnangara             4   21122111
      Camden               2   11111001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   11101000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey               13   34432211
      Mawson              12   43122233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1110 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan     5    Quiet
31 Jan     5    Quiet
01 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to 
active periods in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jan    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values for the 
last 24 hours, with daytime depressions in the Niue Island region. 
Periods of sporadic E were observed at low to mid latitudes. 
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    63300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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