[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 31 10:30:30 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the next 3
days. The solar wind speed continued to decline over the UT day
to ~300 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between +/-2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 5 21221212
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 5 22111212
Alice Springs 3 11111102
Norfolk Island 2 11100012
Gnangara 4 21111112
Camden 1 01000011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23321111
Mawson 6 12111133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 3 Quiet
01 Feb 3 Quiet
02 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled periods
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values for the
last 24 hours, with significant enhancements at Darwin for most
of the UT day. Some periods of sporadic E were observed at low
to mid latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 34700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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