[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 31 10:30:30 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed continued to decline over the UT day 
to ~300 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between +/-2 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               5   21221212
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            5   22111212
      Alice Springs        3   11111102
      Norfolk Island       2   11100012
      Gnangara             4   21111112
      Camden               1   01000011
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               1   11100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                7   23321111
      Mawson               6   12111133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1010 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan     3    Quiet
01 Feb     3    Quiet
02 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled periods 
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jan    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values for the 
last 24 hours, with significant enhancements at Darwin for most 
of the UT day. Some periods of sporadic E were observed at low 
to mid latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted 
values for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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