[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 29 10:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             110/60             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a 
C1 flare from region 1660 (beyond the west limb). Solar activity 
is expected to be very low over the next 3 days. The solar wind 
speed declined slightly over the UT day to ~400km/s. The IMF 
Bz component fluctuated between +/-2nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111212
      Cocos Island         3   21111111
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           6   22212221
      Learmonth            6   22212222
      Alice Springs        4   11111212
      Norfolk Island       4   32101102
      Gnangara             5   22111222
      Camden               3   12101211
      Canberra             2   01101211
      Hobart               4   12112211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   02101200
      Casey               15   15432222
      Mawson               8   2231322-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan     5    Quiet
30 Jan     5    Quiet
31 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled 
to active periods in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jan    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values for the 
last 24 hours, with daytime depressions in the Cocus Island region. 
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values for the 
next 3 days. Minor depressions possible at low latitudes on 29-Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    87200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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