[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 13 issued 2351 UT on 27 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 28 10:51:01 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind 
speed showed a gradual decrease from 510 km/s to 410 km/s 
due to the effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component of 
IMF showed variations between +/-4 nT almost the whole day 
today. The coronal hole effect is showing signs of weakening. 
The coronal hole effect is expected to further decline over 
the next 24 hours. Very low levels of solar activity may be 
expected for the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an 
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 27/2125UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111211
      Cocos Island         3   11111210
      Darwin               4   21111212
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            8   22222322
      Alice Springs        4   21112211
      Norfolk Island       5   22111221
      Gnangara             4   21112211
      Camden               4   21111211
      Canberra             3   21101211
      Hobart               5   22211211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   23121210
      Casey               16   34532221
      Mawson              15   43223324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             19   3124 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan     5    Quiet
30 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Due to the weakening of the effect of the high 
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic 
activity declined to Quiet to Unsettled levels today. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions on 28 January and mostly Quiet on 
29 and 30 January, may be expected as the effect of the 
coronal hole is expected to gradually further diminish 
during this period. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 27/2125UT, which can be a 
precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to moderate MUF depressions 
were observed today on most locations. Periods of strong 
sporadic E were also observed on low and some mid latitude 
locations. HF conditions may be expected to improve over 
the next 24 hours. Minor MUF depression may be observed on 
mid and high latitudes on 28 January. Mostly normal HF 
conditions may be expected on 29 and 30 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jan    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
29 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to moderate MUF depressions 
were observed today on most locations. Periods of strong 
sporadic E were also observed in northern Australian regions. 
HF conditions may be expected to improve over the next 
24 hours. Minor MUF depression may be observed on mid and 
high latitudes on 28 January. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected on 29 and 30 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   254000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list