[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 13 issued 2323 UT on 26 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 27 10:23:26 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. As anticipated, 
the solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 490 km/s 
to 510 km/s due to the effect of the coronal hole. The Bz 
component of IMF showed variations between +/-10 nT almost 
the whole day today. The coronal hole effect is expected to 
continue to keep solar wind stream strengthened for the next 
2 days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for 
the next 3 days. IPS Mag data recorded a weak sudden impulse 
(20nT) at 0540UT on 26 01 13 0540UT. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 26/2000UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Unsettled to Active

Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   43333334
      Cocos Island        12   32233323
      Darwin              15   43332333
      Townsville          17   43332334
      Learmonth           23   33443435
      Alice Springs       15   33333333
      Norfolk Island      14   33332234
      Gnangara            20   43333335
      Camden              18   43332434
      Canberra            15   33332334
      Hobart              22   44433434    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    30   33455543
      Casey               37   56544344
      Mawson              45   54544466

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   0111 1224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active
28 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a coronal hole and a possible effect of a CME, Unsettled 
to Active levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today. 
In the IPS magnetometer data for 26 Jan, a weak (20nT) impulse 
was observed at 0540UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay 
at Unsettled to Active levels on 27 January, Quiet to Unsettled 
on 28 January and mostly Quiet on 29 January as the effect of 
the coronal hole is expected to gradually diminish during this 
period. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 26/2000UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: As anticipated, HF conditions were mostly normal 
today with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions 
on mid and high latitude locations . Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions on 27 January and minor to mild depressions on 
28 January may be observed on mid and high latitudes due to 
an expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on 29 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jan    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
28 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
29 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: As anticipated, HF conditions were mostly normal 
today with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions 
in northern Australian regions and moderate MUF depressions 
in Southern parts of this region . Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions on 27 January and minor to mild depressions on 
28 January may be observed on mid and high latitudes due to 
an expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on 29 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    34900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list