[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 13 issued 2326 UT on 25 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 26 10:26:08 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A few B-class 
flares were observed. As anticipated, the solar wind speed 
showed a gradual increase from 270 km/s to 400 km/s due to 
the effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF stayed 
close to the normal value (mostly between +/-5 nT) until around 
1800UT and then showed variations between +/-10 nT. The CME 
observed on 23 January may have a weak geoeffective component. 
The CME may arrive late on 26 or early on 27 January. Very 
low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12221322
      Cocos Island         3   11110220
      Darwin               7   1211133-
      Townsville           8   12221323
      Learmonth            9   22221333
      Alice Springs        6   12121322
      Norfolk Island       5   11211222
      Gnangara             5   11121222
      Camden               6   01121323
      Canberra             4   01210213
      Hobart               5   1222122-    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   0111111-
      Casey               12   34422212
      Mawson               9   23221214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan    15    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. 
Rise in the activity level up to unsettled levels is expected 
from 26 to 28 January due to the expected effect of a coronal 
hole and a possible effect of a CME that was observed on 
23 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on low latitudes. 
Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may be 
observed from 26 to 28 January due to an expected slight 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jan    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
27 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
28 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian 
regions. Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may 
be observed from 26 to 28 January due to an expected slight 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 272 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    15600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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