[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 13 issued 2346 UT on 24 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 25 10:46:42 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest 
flare was a B6.6 from region 1662(N27E63). Solar wind speed 
stayed between 260 and 280 km/s while the Bz component of IMF 
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-4 nT). The
CME observed on 23 January may have a weak geoeffective component. 
The CME may arrive late on 26 or early on 27 January. The 
previously anticipated effect of a high speed solar wind stream 
has not started yet, but it may give some strength to the solar 
wind stream from 25 January. Very low to low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   10000012
      Townsville           4   11111122
      Learmonth            4   31110112
      Alice Springs        2   10100102
      Norfolk Island       2   11000012
      Gnangara             4   21111112
      Camden               0   10000001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   11100011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   33310011
      Mawson               3   32100001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. 
Rise in the activity level up to unsettled levels is expected 
from 25 to 27 January due to the expected effect of a coronal 
hole and a possible effect of a CME that was observed on 
23 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on low latitudes. 
Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may be 
observed from 25 to 27 January due to an expected slight 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
26 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
27 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian 
regions. Minor MUF depressions on mid and high latitudes may 
be observed from 25 to 27 January due to an expected slight 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 290 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    14400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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