[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 13 issued 2335 UT on 23 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 24 10:35:48 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest 
flare was a B6.5 from region 1661(N14W41). Solar wind speed 
stayed between 280 and 300 km/s while the Bz component of IMF 
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-3 nT). 
Disappearance of a solar filament was observed today in the 
north-eastern regions of the solar disk. No other event has 
been associated with the disappearance of this filament. The 
filament disappearance is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
3 days. A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole 
in the southern hemisphere of the solar disk may give some 
strength to the solar wind stream from late on 24 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Mostly Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12211001
      Cocos Island         2   01112000
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Townsville           4   12211112
      Learmonth            5   22211112
      Alice Springs        2   12200001
      Norfolk Island       2   12100011
      Gnangara             3   11211102
      Camden               1   11200000
      Canberra             1   01200000
      Hobart               2   12210001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey                8   34311011
      Mawson               7   24212002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     6    Quiet
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar activity may be expected on 24 January with 
some possibility of a rise up to unsettled levels late on 
this day. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at 
unsettled levels on 25 and 26 January due to a coronal hole 
effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on some low latitude 
stations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 days with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on 
mid and high latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 and 
26 January due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jan    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
26 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some periods 
of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian regions. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days 
with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on mid and high 
latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 and 26 January due 
to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels during 
this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    23900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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