[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 13 issued 2335 UT on 23 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 24 10:35:48 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest
flare was a B6.5 from region 1661(N14W41). Solar wind speed
stayed between 280 and 300 km/s while the Bz component of IMF
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-3 nT).
Disappearance of a solar filament was observed today in the
north-eastern regions of the solar disk. No other event has
been associated with the disappearance of this filament. The
filament disappearance is not expected to be geoeffective.
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
3 days. A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere of the solar disk may give some
strength to the solar wind stream from late on 24 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 12211001
Cocos Island 2 01112000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 5 22211112
Alice Springs 2 12200001
Norfolk Island 2 12100011
Gnangara 3 11211102
Camden 1 11200000
Canberra 1 01200000
Hobart 2 12210001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 8 34311011
Mawson 7 24212002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 6 Quiet
25 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar activity may be expected on 24 January with
some possibility of a rise up to unsettled levels late on
this day. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at
unsettled levels on 25 and 26 January due to a coronal hole
effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on some low latitude
stations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on
mid and high latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 and
26 January due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
26 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some periods
of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian regions.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days
with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on mid and high
latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 and 26 January due
to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 23900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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