[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 13 issued 2344 UT on 22 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 23 10:44:26 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest 
flare was a B7.7 from region 1660. Solar wind speed gradually 
decreased from 340 to 300 km/s while the Bz component of IMF 
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-2 nT). 
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
3 days. A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole 
in the southern hemisphere of the solar disk may give some 
strength to the solar wind stream from 24 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               0   00000001
      Townsville           4   12211111
      Learmonth            4   12121112
      Alice Springs        1   11010001
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Gnangara             2   11111001
      Camden               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   12001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   23211000
      Mawson               4   22001013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     5    Quiet
24 Jan     6    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar activity may be expected on 23 January and 
first half of 24 January. Rise in the activity level up to 
unsettled levels is possible late on 24 January and continue 
to stay at that level on 25 January due to an expected effect 
of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on some low latitude 
stations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 days with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on 
mid and high latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 January 
due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some periods 
of minor to mild MUF depressions in northern Australian regions. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days 
with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on mid and high 
latitudes late on 24 January and through 25 January due to an 
expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this 
period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    29300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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