[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 13 issued 2340 UT on 21 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 22 10:40:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest 
flare was a B4.7 from region 1658(S12W46). Region 1660(N12W15) 
showed growth over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually 
decreased from 390 to 350 km/s while the Bz component of IMF 
stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-2 nT). Low 
levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Cocos Island         2   10111111
      Darwin               3   21110112
      Townsville           5   21221122
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Alice Springs        2   11100112
      Norfolk Island       2   21110011
      Gnangara             5   22111212
      Camden               3   21110112
      Canberra             1   10100002
      Hobart               3   11111112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01101001
      Casey                8   23321222
      Mawson              15   53221224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3232 2100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     5    Quiet
23 Jan     5    Quiet
24 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar activity may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on low latitudes. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some 
periods of minor to mild MUF depressions in Northern 
Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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