[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 21 10:30:04 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 107/57

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: One, low level, C flare from region 1654 (N07W76). Region 
1660 (N13W02) has grown while region 1658 (S13W29) is stable. 
No CMEs to report. ACE data show the solar wind speed declining 
from 460 to 400 km/s. The north-south IMF component was mostly 
southward to -8 nT until ~13 UT, then ranged between +/-4 nT. 
The solar wind may become slightly disturbed late on 23 Jan due 
to the effects of a small, southern hemisphere coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to active

Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22423111
      Cocos Island         5   22322100
      Darwin               7   22323101
      Townsville          11   23433211
      Learmonth           15   33533221
      Alice Springs        8   22423011
      Norfolk Island       6   22322101
      Gnangara             9   32333111
      Camden               9   23423001
      Canberra             7   22423000
      Hobart              10   33423101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    13   22345200
      Casey               14   34433212
      Mawson              19   45433222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              6   3100 2213     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     6    Quiet
22 Jan     5    Quiet
23 Jan     8    Mostly quiet. Possible mild activity in the latter 
                half of the period.

COMMENT: Mild activity late on 23 Jan due to the effects of a 
small coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Jan    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30% 16-18 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 15-25% 02-04 and
      16-17 UT. Enhanced by 15-30% 08-13 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements 25-50%
      05-16 UT at Darwin. Mostly near predicted monthly
      values at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 15-25% at
      some stations during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Occasional weak ionosphere. Near predicted monthly values
      to 20% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Sporadic E observed on occasions at mid and low
latitudes during daytime.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    24700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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