[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 20 10:30:07 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 107/57

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Two, low level, C flares from regions 1654 (N08W73) 
and 1660 (N11E12). Region 1654 has further decayed. A CME directed 
northwards was first observed in STEREO images at 1308 UT and 
is unlikely to be geo-effective. Activity was also observed in 
the south-east quadrant of SDO images. Available images cannot 
confirm any associated CME. ACE data show the solar wind speed 
ranged from 370-460 km/s while the north-south IMF component 
ranged between +6/-6 nT. A weak shock was observed in the solar 
wind at 1645 UT, probably signalling the arrival of the CME events. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to be moderately disturbed 
on 20 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32112323
      Cocos Island         6   21112322
      Darwin               9   32112323
      Townsville          10   32222323
      Learmonth           11   32223323
      Alice Springs        8   32102323
      Norfolk Island       7   32112222
      Gnangara             9   42112223
      Camden               7   32112222
      Canberra             6   32102212
      Hobart               7   31212312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   21101211
      Casey               15   44342222
      Mawson              19   43112326

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2311 3223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    16    Unsettled to active. Minor storm levels possible.
21 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled. Possible isolated active 
                periods.
22 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled.

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and 
is current for 19-20 Jan. A weak (11nT) impulse was observed 
at 1733 UT in the IPS magnetometer data probably due to the arrival 
of the 15/16 Jan CME events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair
21 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Jan   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 15%
      09-12 and 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-40% 00-13 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Enhanced 15-35% 12-20 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      enhancements to 25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
21 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values.
22 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at high latitudes on 20 
Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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