[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 17 10:30:10 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: One, long duration, C2.2 flare at 1923 UT, probably
from region 1650 (S31W79). There has been some decline in the
area and spot count of region 1654 (N07W31) while other regions
appear stable. A weak stream/CME observed in STEREO A images
at 0824 UT appears to be associated with activity in the vicinity
of 1650. A CME was associated with the C flare. It is unlikely
either will be geo-effective. ACE data show the north-south IMF
undisturbed with wind speed ranging between 380 and 460 km/s.
Density began to increase ~23 UT, possibly announcing the arrival
of the 13 Jan CME. The solar wind is likely to be slightly disturbed
on 17 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22211232
Cocos Island 6 22211132
Darwin 5 11110133
Townsville 7 12221232
Learmonth 10 22221243
Alice Springs 6 22211132
Norfolk Island 6 12111232
Gnangara 7 22121232
Camden 5 22211122
Canberra 4 21210122
Hobart 6 22211222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11121021
Casey 16 44422233
Mawson 19 22111256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Jan 6 Quiet
19 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Chance of isolated active periods at higher latitudes
on 17 Jan due to CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35% 04-07 UT.
Depressions 20-30% 21-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced
20-30% 00-01 UT and 22-23 UT. Depressed 15-20% 03-06 UT
and 25-35% 12-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-40% 01-04,
08-16 UT at Darwin. Enhanced 20-30% 08-18, 21-22 UT at
Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced to 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 30%
enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
18 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
19 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: Sporadic E observed at mid-latitudes late afternoon
and night. Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 93400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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