[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 17 10:30:10 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 137/91

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: One, long duration, C2.2 flare at 1923 UT, probably 
from region 1650 (S31W79). There has been some decline in the 
area and spot count of region 1654 (N07W31) while other regions 
appear stable. A weak stream/CME observed in STEREO A images 
at 0824 UT appears to be associated with activity in the vicinity 
of 1650. A CME was associated with the C flare. It is unlikely 
either will be geo-effective. ACE data show the north-south IMF 
undisturbed with wind speed ranging between 380 and 460 km/s. 
Density began to increase ~23 UT, possibly announcing the arrival 
of the 13 Jan CME. The solar wind is likely to be slightly disturbed 
on 17 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22211232
      Cocos Island         6   22211132
      Darwin               5   11110133
      Townsville           7   12221232
      Learmonth           10   22221243
      Alice Springs        6   22211132
      Norfolk Island       6   12111232
      Gnangara             7   22121232
      Camden               5   22211122
      Canberra             4   21210122
      Hobart               6   22211222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   11121021
      Casey               16   44422233
      Mawson              19   22111256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1010 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled
18 Jan     6    Quiet
19 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Chance of isolated active periods at higher latitudes 
on 17 Jan due to CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Jan   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35% 04-07 UT. 
      Depressions 20-30% 21-23 UT. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced
      20-30% 00-01 UT and 22-23 UT. Depressed 15-20% 03-06 UT
      and 25-35% 12-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-40% 01-04,
      08-16 UT at Darwin. Enhanced 20-30% 08-18, 21-22 UT at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced to 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 30%
      enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
18 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
19 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

COMMENT: Sporadic E observed at mid-latitudes late afternoon 
and night. Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    93400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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