[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 15 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 16 10:29:37 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 140/94

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Five, low level, C flares from region 1650 (S30W64) 
and large region 1654 (N08W17). Most regions appear stable; region 
1652 (N19W57) has declined while 1654 has shown some decrease 
in area but an increase in spots. STEREO images show a CME that 
is unlikely to be geo-effective, associated with a 0733 UT flare 
from 1650. ACE data show the north-south IMF component ranged 
between +/-4 nT with the wind speed decreasing from about 560 
to 400 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly 
undisturbed. There is a chance of a slight disturbance on 17 
Jan due to the weak CME on 13 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212112
      Cocos Island         2   21111010
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            9   32223222
      Alice Springs        6   21213112
      Norfolk Island       6   22112113
      Gnangara             7   22223212
      Camden               5   22212112
      Canberra             5   22212111
      Hobart               5   22212121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     4   22213000
      Casey               21   36432231
      Mawson              11   33222241

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3222 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan     6    Quiet
17 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled
18 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Chance of isolated active periods at higher latitudes 
on 17 Jan due to CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Jan   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced to 25% 04-07 UT. Depressed to 25% 22-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Depressions to 25% 03-05 and 11-12 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Depressions 20-25% at Darwin 19-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced to 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
17 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
18 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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