[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 13 issued 2327 UT on 14 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 15 10:27:40 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 154/109

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Six C class flares from regions 1652 (N18W41), 1654 
(N08W09) and 1657 (S17W18), the largest a C6.5 at 0122 UT from 
AR 1652. ACE data show the north-south IMF component ranging 
between +/-7 nT, settling over the reporting period. The solar 
wind speed ranged between 500 and 590 km/s. The solar wind is 
expected to be mostly undisturbed on 15 and 16 Jan, although 
wind speed may remain at moderate levels on 15 Jan. A weak CME, 
observed in LASCO and STEREO images on 13 Jan, may impact Earth 
on 17 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods 00-03 UT.

Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32223222
      Cocos Island         6   32222111
      Darwin              10   42223222
      Townsville           9   32223222
      Learmonth           14   42333323
      Alice Springs        8   32223212
      Norfolk Island       8   32222222
      Gnangara            11   42233222
      Camden               7   32222221
      Canberra             7   32222121
      Hobart              11   33323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    14   42244221
      Casey               26   46533322
      Mawson              21   34334344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   2120 2334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan     6    Quiet
17 Jan    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: A weak (11nT) impulse was observed at 0116UT in the 
IPS magnetometer data on 14 Jan. Expect isolated activity, particularly 
at higher latitudes, while the solar wind remains slightly elevated. 
Possible active levels on 17 Jan with increased activity at high 
latitudes due to weak CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Jan   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
      21-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 30% 21-23
      UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Enhanced
     to 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
16 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
17 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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