[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 13 issued 2339 UT on 13 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 14 10:39:37 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    0838UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 13 January, 
with several C- and M-class flares from active regions 1652(N19W27) 
and 1654(N08E03). The largest was an M1.7 class X-ray flare from 
active region 1652 at 0838UT associated with Type II/IV sweeps. 
Expect Low to Moderate solar activity over the next three days 
with a slight chance of X-class flares from active regions 1652 
and 1654. The solar wind speed ranged between 390 to 510 km/s 
and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +8/-9nT 
over the last 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21222233
      Cocos Island         6   31211222
      Darwin               8   21212224
      Townsville          11   22222334
      Learmonth           13   32332333
      Alice Springs        8   22222223
      Norfolk Island       8   21212233
      Gnangara            11   32223233
      Camden               9   21212333
      Canberra             8   21212233
      Hobart              10   31222333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    11   11214333
      Casey               22   45433333
      Mawson              26   43323464

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled with 
isolated cases of Active levels at high latitudes during the 
UT day, 13 January. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions and 
isolated Active levels at high latitudes while the solar wind 
remains slightly elevated.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jan   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day, 13 January. Normal to enhanced conditions are expected 
to prevail over the next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated 
with several active regions on the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    64900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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