[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 13 issued 2319 UT on 12 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 13 10:19:51 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 12 January, with 
several C class flares from active regions 1652(N19W13) and 1654(N08E19). 
The largest was a C5.3 class X-ray flare from active region 1654 
at 0224UT. Expect Low to Moderate solar activity over the next 
three days with a slight chance of X-class flares due to active 
region 1654. The solar wind speed ranged between 340 to 410 km/s 
and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +5/-5nT 
over the last 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121112
      Cocos Island         3   22211010
      Darwin               8   32131123
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            8   32221123
      Alice Springs        5   21122112
      Norfolk Island       5   31111112
      Gnangara             6   31122122
      Camden               4   22111112
      Canberra             3   21111012
      Hobart               4   22112111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   21011000
      Casey               13   44331122
      Mawson               7   33112122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0001 1013     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan     6    Quiet
15 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with isolated 
cases of Active levels at high latitudes during the UT day, 12 
January . Expect gradual return to mostly quiet levels over the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day, 12 January, however notable depressions were note at 
Niue station and Northern Australia during the local day. Normal 
to enhanced conditions are expected to prevail over the next 
3 days due to elevated EUV associated with several active regions 
on the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    46100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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