[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 13 issued 2326 UT on 11 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 12 10:26:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0911UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1511UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 11 January, 
with several C class flares and two M-class flares observed. 
The largest was an M1.2 class X-ray flare from active region 
1654 at 0911UT and was associated with a type II and IV sweeps. 
Expect Low to Moderate solar activity over the next three days 
with a slight chance of X-class flares due to active region 1654. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 275 to 360 km/s and the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +5/-8nT over the last 24 hours. 
Expect solar wind speed to elevate to near 400 km/s today due 
to coronal hole influence. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME 
occurring on the east limb of the Sun first observed at 11/0224UT, 
however it is not expected to be geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121012
      Cocos Island         4   2222100-
      Darwin               5   02121023
      Townsville           6   22222121
      Learmonth            4   11122012
      Alice Springs        4   11211022
      Gnangara             4   2112211-
      Camden               4   11111013
      Canberra             2   11111020
      Hobart               4   22121012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                8   2333200-
      Mawson               4   2122210-
      Davis               13   23333---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan    12    Unsettled
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT 
day 11 January. Expect mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with 
isolated cases of Active conditions at high latitudes today, 
12 January. On 13-14 January expect a gradual return to Quiet 
conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day, 11 January. Normal to enhanced conditions are expected 
to prevail over the next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated 
with several active regions on the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    40800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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