[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 11 10:30:49 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 174/128


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 10 January, with 
several C class flares observed. The largest was a C8 class X-ray 
flare from active region 1654 at 1746UT. Expect Low to solar 
activity over the next three days, however there is a moderate 
chance that active region 1654 will produce a M-class flare over 
the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged between 340 to 
290 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 
+3/-5nT for the UT day. Expect solar wind speed to remain around 
300 km/s until late in the UT day when the solar wind is expected 
to increase to around 400 km/s due to a recurring coronal hole. 
SOHO LASCO imagery showed a CME occurring on the east limb of 
the Sun first observed at 9/2312UT, however it is not expected 
to be geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Cocos Island         3   11211011
      Darwin               2   21100011
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            4   12111112
      Norfolk Island       2   11100021
      Culgoora             2   11--0-1-
      Gnangara             4   11211112
      Camden               2   11100021
      Canberra             1   02000010
      Hobart               2   11111011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey               11   33432111
      Mawson               8   23211033
      Davis               10   23332222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1001 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     6    Quiet
12 Jan    12    Unsettled
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT 
day 10 January. Expect mostly Quiet conditions today, 11 January, 
although late in the UT day and 12 January expect Unsettled conditions 
to develope in the Australian region with isolated cases of Active 
conditions at high latitudes. On 13 January expect a gradual 
return to Quiet conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jan   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day, 10 January. However, a significant depression was noted 
at the Niue station between 01 and 07UT. Normal to enhanced conditions 
are expected to prevail over the next 3 days due to elevated 
EUV associated with several active regions on the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    46400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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