[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 11 10:30:49 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 10 January, with
several C class flares observed. The largest was a C8 class X-ray
flare from active region 1654 at 1746UT. Expect Low to solar
activity over the next three days, however there is a moderate
chance that active region 1654 will produce a M-class flare over
the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged between 340 to
290 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+3/-5nT for the UT day. Expect solar wind speed to remain around
300 km/s until late in the UT day when the solar wind is expected
to increase to around 400 km/s due to a recurring coronal hole.
SOHO LASCO imagery showed a CME occurring on the east limb of
the Sun first observed at 9/2312UT, however it is not expected
to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 3 11211011
Darwin 2 21100011
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 4 12111112
Norfolk Island 2 11100021
Culgoora 2 11--0-1-
Gnangara 4 11211112
Camden 2 11100021
Canberra 1 02000010
Hobart 2 11111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 11 33432111
Mawson 8 23211033
Davis 10 23332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 6 Quiet
12 Jan 12 Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT
day 10 January. Expect mostly Quiet conditions today, 11 January,
although late in the UT day and 12 January expect Unsettled conditions
to develope in the Australian region with isolated cases of Active
conditions at high latitudes. On 13 January expect a gradual
return to Quiet conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day, 10 January. However, a significant depression was noted
at the Niue station between 01 and 07UT. Normal to enhanced conditions
are expected to prevail over the next 3 days due to elevated
EUV associated with several active regions on the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 46400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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