[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 13 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 10 10:31:50 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 9 January, with 
several C class flares observed. The largest was a C2.5 class 
x-ray flare from active region 1654 at 0956UT. Expect Low to 
solar activity over the next three days, however there is a Moderate 
chance that active region 1654 will produce an M-class flare over 
the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained around 350km/s 
and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +2/-4nT 
for the UT day. Expect similar solar wind conditions today.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110011
      Cocos Island         2   11111011
      Darwin               3   21110012
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            3   22110011
      Norfolk Island       2   21100111
      Culgoora             4   21121---
      Gnangara             4   21111112
      Camden               3   21110012
      Canberra             1   11010001
      Hobart               3   21210011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   11120000
      Casey               15   44432122
      Mawson               9   33211133
      Davis               10   33322222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0100 0102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     4    Quiet
11 Jan     4    Quiet
12 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT 
day 9 January. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jan   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan   110    Solar activity has been Low with C class flares 
                from active regions Near to 20% above predicted 
                monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day, 9 January. However, noted slight depressions at low latitudes 
in afternoon hours, in particular at Darwin and Cocos Island 
stations. Normal to enhanced conditions are expected to prevail 
over the next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated with several 
active regions on the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    45900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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