[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 13 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 10 10:31:50 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 9 January, with
several C class flares observed. The largest was a C2.5 class
x-ray flare from active region 1654 at 0956UT. Expect Low to
solar activity over the next three days, however there is a Moderate
chance that active region 1654 will produce an M-class flare over
the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained around 350km/s
and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +2/-4nT
for the UT day. Expect similar solar wind conditions today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Cocos Island 2 11111011
Darwin 3 21110012
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 3 22110011
Norfolk Island 2 21100111
Culgoora 4 21121---
Gnangara 4 21111112
Camden 3 21110012
Canberra 1 11010001
Hobart 3 21210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11120000
Casey 15 44432122
Mawson 9 33211133
Davis 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0100 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 4 Quiet
11 Jan 4 Quiet
12 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT
day 9 January. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 110 Solar activity has been Low with C class flares
from active regions Near to 20% above predicted
monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day, 9 January. However, noted slight depressions at low latitudes
in afternoon hours, in particular at Darwin and Cocos Island
stations. Normal to enhanced conditions are expected to prevail
over the next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated with several
active regions on the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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