[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 13 issued 2335 UT on 08 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 9 10:35:58 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jan             10 Jan             11 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 8 January, with 
C class flares from active regions 1640(N28,west limb), 1646(N13W09), 
1652(N17E37), and 1654(N09E71). The largest was a C4 class x-ray 
flare from active region 1640 at 1912UT. Expect similar activity 
over the next three days. The solar wind speed remained around 
350km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 
+/-5nT for the UT day. Expect similar solar wind conditions today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21121212
      Cocos Island         4   11221112
      Darwin               5   21021213
      Townsville           7   22122223
      Learmonth            5   21122212
      Norfolk Island       3   11010212
      Culgoora             6   21111223
      Gnangara             6   21131212
      Camden               5   11111223
      Canberra             2   11010112
      Hobart               4   11111212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   00000102
      Casey               12   34322123
      Mawson              11   22221125
      Davis               13   22342224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jan     4    Quiet
10 Jan     4    Quiet
11 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT 
day 8 January. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jan   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced over the UT day, 
8 January. Similar conditions are expected to prevail over the 
next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated with active regions 
on the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    59800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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