[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 8 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jan             09 Jan             10 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with C class flares from 
active regions 1638(N13W74), 1640(N28W88), 1645(S13W58), and 
1653(N09E50), the largest was a C3.1 class x-ray flare with associated 
H-alpha subflare from active region 1640. Expect similar activity 
over the next three days with possible C-class flares from active 
region 1652(N20E48) as well. The solar wind speed remained around 
360km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 
+/-5nT for the UT day, 7 January. Expect similar solar wind conditions 
today. Two CMEs were observed one on the eastern limb at 0412UT 
and the other on the western limb at 1124UT based on SOHO C2 
imagery. Neither is expected to be geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111012
      Cocos Island         1   10010011
      Darwin               4   21011013
      Townsville           5   22111122
      Learmonth            4   21121112
      Norfolk Island       2   11100012
      Culgoora             3   21011012
      Gnangara             5   21121113
      Camden               2   -1011012
      Canberra             2   21000012
      Hobart               3   21111012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   10000011
      Casey               12   34431112
      Mawson               6   32121013
      Davis                9   23332122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              3   0000 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jan     6    Quiet
09 Jan     6    Quiet
10 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT 
day 7 January. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jan   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jan   100    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan   100    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan   100    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced over the UT day, 
7 January. Similar conditions are expected to prevail over the 
next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated with active regions 
on the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 317 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    42700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list