[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 8 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with C class flares from
active regions 1638(N13W74), 1640(N28W88), 1645(S13W58), and
1653(N09E50), the largest was a C3.1 class x-ray flare with associated
H-alpha subflare from active region 1640. Expect similar activity
over the next three days with possible C-class flares from active
region 1652(N20E48) as well. The solar wind speed remained around
360km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-5nT for the UT day, 7 January. Expect similar solar wind conditions
today. Two CMEs were observed one on the eastern limb at 0412UT
and the other on the western limb at 1124UT based on SOHO C2
imagery. Neither is expected to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21111012
Cocos Island 1 10010011
Darwin 4 21011013
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 4 21121112
Norfolk Island 2 11100012
Culgoora 3 21011012
Gnangara 5 21121113
Camden 2 -1011012
Canberra 2 21000012
Hobart 3 21111012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 10000011
Casey 12 34431112
Mawson 6 32121013
Davis 9 23332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 0000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 6 Quiet
09 Jan 6 Quiet
10 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT
day 7 January. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced over the UT day,
7 January. Similar conditions are expected to prevail over the
next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated with active regions
on the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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