[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 13 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 7 10:31:55 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares, 
mostly from region 1653(N09E65), the greatest being a C3. Solar 
wind conditions have been mostly ambient with a small increase 
in solar wind speed from around 300 to 350Km/s after 14UT with 
an accompanying small increase in the IMF Bz fluctuation amplitude 
from around +/-3 nT to 5nT. A CME was observed on the western 
limb of the Sun in LASCO imagery from around 06UT. STEREO A and 
B imagery indicate this is a backside event and not geoeffective. 
Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels with some 
chance of isolated M class flares over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11122222
      Cocos Island         4   11112121
      Darwin               4   11012222
      Townsville           6   22122222
      Learmonth            8   22123232
      Norfolk Island       4   11012122
      Culgoora             4   11012222
      Gnangara             7   21122232
      Camden               6   12122222
      Canberra             2   01011111
      Hobart               6   12122222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   00010011
      Casey               13   34322233
      Mawson               7   22121232
      Davis               12   22222252

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan    12    Quiet before possible isolated Active period 
                then Unsettled.
08 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. There is the chance of 
an isolated Active period followed by Unsettled conditions on 
day 1 (7th of Jan UT) due to the possible arrival of a co-rotating 
interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind 
stream. Conditions are expected to return to Quiet over days 
2 and 3.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jan   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced by around 15% 
over the previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over 
the next 3 days. Some disturbance may be experience on the 7th 
and 8th due to mild geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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