[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 05 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 6 10:29:42 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0931UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with a short duration 
M1 flare observed from around the eastern limb at 0930UT. Numerous 
sunspot regions are present on the visible Sun. Further C and 
possibly M class flare activity can be expected over the next 
few days. The solar wind conditions are ambient. A weak coronal 
hole high speed stream may elevate wind speeds on Jan 7th and 
8th.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               1   22000000
      Townsville           4   12221111
      Learmonth            3   22110110
      Norfolk Island       1   11010001
      Culgoora             1   10010001
      Gnangara             3   21111111
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               2   21110010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey               10   34321121
      Mawson               4   22111111
      Davis                6   23211121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan     5    Quiet
07 Jan    12    Unsettled with a possible isolated Active period.
08 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. A co-rotating interaction 
region (CIR) ahead of a coronal hole high speed wind stream may 
cause an isolated Active period on arrival sometime on the 7th, 
followed by Quiet to Unsettled periods in the day or two following.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced by 15-20% over 
the previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over the 
next 3 days. Some disturbance may be experience on the 7th and 
8th due to mild geomagnetic activity. Large changes in the MUF 
compared to recent conditions are not expected, but are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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