[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 04 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 5 10:29:51 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C1 flares. 
A CME was seen in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO-A satellite coronagraphs, 
first seen around 10UT. It appears to be directed to the western 
limb and is unlikely to be geo-effective. Solar wind conditions 
remain ambient. Many small sunspot regions are currently on the 
visible Sun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               1   11000011
      Townsville           4   12211121
      Learmonth            2   12111001
      Norfolk Island       2   21000021
      Culgoora             2   20100021
      Gnangara             3   2111110-
      Camden               3   21110022
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Hobart               3   12110021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey               11   44331110
      Mawson               6   3311200-
      Davis                8   33222112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     5    Quiet
06 Jan     5    Quiet
07 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
Quiet for the remainder of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced by 15-20% over 
the previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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