[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 4 10:30:33 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours with 
a single C1 flare around 2140UT. Solar wind conditions remain 
ambient. There are numerous small active regions on the Sun however 
none of these have significant flare potential at present.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           4   22111111
      Learmonth            3   22111101
      Norfolk Island       2   21000011
      Culgoora             1   11010001
      Gnangara             3   21111111
      Camden               3   12111101
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               2   11101101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                8   34311001
      Mawson               5   33102101
      Davis                9   33223211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     5    Quiet
05 Jan     5    Quiet
06 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
Quiet for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to mildly enhanced over the 
previous UT day. Similar conditions are expected over the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list